Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?

50¢mid

Bid/Ask 10/89¢·Spread 79¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jan 3, 2027·259d remaining

KXNCAAFSBELT-26-JMU

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable rather than a genuine assessment of James Madison's championship odds. The 79¢ spread and astronomical 1266.9% implied yield on the Yes side indicate this is likely a ghost market with no real trading activity, suggesting the price reflects a technical floor rather than market consensus. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, any eventual liquidity could produce sharp repricing once actual bets materialize.

Resolution rules

If James Madison wins the 2026 College Football Sun Belt Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1266.9%

IY (No) 15.6%

Adj IY 633%

CRI 9

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1266.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	633%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

79¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:04:09 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAAFSBELT-26-JMU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →