Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17K
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
108 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Louisiana” vs “Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Louisiana
Cluster 2
Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: South Alabama
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-USA
Cluster 3
Will Arkansas St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Arkansas St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Arkansas St.
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-ARST
Cluster 4
Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: James Madison
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-JMU
Cluster 5
Will Old Dominion win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Old Dominion win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Old Dominion
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-ODU
Cluster 6
Will Marshall win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Marshall win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Marshall
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-MRSH
Cluster 7
Will Georgia Southern win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Georgia Southern win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Georgia Southern
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-GASO
Cluster 8
Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Appalachian St.
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-APP
Cluster 9
Will Troy win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Troy win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Troy
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-TROY
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that James Madison has an 8% chance of winning the Sun Belt Conference championship in college football. The low probability suggests traders view James Madison as a long-shot contender compared to teams like Marshall (currently at 10%), indicating concerns about the team's competitive strength within the conference this season. The championship will be determined by conference play performance through the regular season and any subsequent conference tournament, with the outcome depending on James Madison's win-loss record relative to other Sun Belt teams. Actual resolution will occur when the conference champion is officially crowned, likely in late November or early December following the conclusion of conference competition.
- ›James Madison's current trading price (18¢) is meaningfully higher than the aggregated 8% probability, suggesting potential market disagreement or pricing discrepancies across venues
- ›Marshall trades at 5¢ despite higher aggregated probability (10%), indicating concentrated skepticism about Marshall's championship chances despite being favored
- ›Trading volume for James Madison is minimal ($10 24h volume), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price signals compared to higher-volume contracts like Marshall ($662 24h volume)
- ›The Sun Belt championship outcome depends directly on James Madison's conference win-loss record relative to competitors through the regular season schedule
- ›Conference standings and head-to-head results between James Madison and other contenders will be the primary determinant of final positioning
What moved the line
- Sep 11Old Dominion↓8pp15→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Old Dominion↓6pp7→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10James Madison↓3pp20→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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