Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
176 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Louisiana” vs “Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Louisiana
Cluster 2
Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Appalachian St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Appalachian St.
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-APP
Cluster 3
Will Arkansas St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Arkansas St. win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Arkansas St.
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-ARST
Cluster 4
Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will James Madison win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: James Madison
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-JMU
Cluster 5
Will Marshall win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Marshall win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Marshall
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-MRSH
Cluster 6
Will Old Dominion win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Old Dominion win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Old Dominion
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-ODU
Cluster 7
Will Troy win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will Troy win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: Troy
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-TROY
Cluster 8
Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship
Will South Alabama win the College Football Sun Belt Championship?: South Alabama
KXNCAAFSBELT-26-USA
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects the implied likelihood that James Madison University wins the Sun Belt Conference football championship in the 2026 season. The low odds suggest market participants view Madison as a significant underdog relative to stronger programs in the conference. The probability would be driven primarily by Madison's roster strength and offseason personnel changes compared to established competitors, along with early-season performance indicators. The actual championship game, typically held in December, will serve as the decisive event. Additional clarity should emerge during preseason assessments in August and through the opening weeks of the season, when actual team performance becomes observable.
- ›James Madison's historical performance and recent trajectory in FBS/Bowl Subdivision competition
- ›Strength and depth of competing Sun Belt programs in 2026, particularly traditional powers
- ›Quality of Madison's quarterback play and offensive personnel entering the season
- ›Head coach stability and coaching staff composition relative to conference rivals
- ›Preseason rankings and expert consensus projections released in summer 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 6James Madison↓22pp36→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10James Madison↑11pp15→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9South Alabama↑8pp1→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Old Dominion↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Old Dominion↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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