JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07.
Price history
4¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance 15¢
Range
1¢-15¢
Family volume
$6
Identifier
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-KHARJVANR
May 24, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$6
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-KHARJVANR
Event family
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance 15¢
Current share
0%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWJVAND
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWJVANR
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBD
Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBR
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-KHARJVANR
Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-ABESJVAND
JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-ABESJVANR
Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-ABESMRUBD
Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-ABESMRUBR
AOC defeats JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCJVAND
JD Vance defeats AOC
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCJVANR
AOC defeats Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCMRUBD
Marco Rubio defeats AOC
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCMRUBR
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-JOSSJVAND
JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-JOSSJVANR
Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-JOSSMRUBD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.