Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder receives a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027. Householder was convicted in 2020 of racketeering and bribery related to a $60 million nuclear power plant subsidy scheme. The 11% probability is substantially lower than comparable white-collar defendants like Sam Bankman-Fried (9%), reflecting several constraints: Householder lacks the high-profile advocacy networks that some high-net-worth defendants attract, his crimes involved state-level corruption rather than financial fraud, and there is limited public indication he has been prioritized for clemency consideration. The primary factors that could shift this probability would be a direct statement from the sitting president regarding Householder's case, organized advocacy efforts from Ohio political figures, or a meaningful change in his legal status. The resolution deadline of January 1, 2027 is approximately six months away, narrowing the window for any clemency action.

• ›Householder's conviction involved state-level corruption and racketeering rather than high-profile financial crimes, which historically receive more frequent pardon consideration
• ›No public statements or documented advocacy efforts from major political figures in Ohio have emerged supporting a pardon as of mid-2026
• ›Comparable white-collar defendants (Bankman-Fried, Holmes) are priced at 9-12%, suggesting Householder ranks lower in perceived pardon probability relative to other incarcerated figures
• ›The sitting president has not indicated Householder is under clemency review, and the deadline is approximately six months away, constraining the action window
• ›Householder's public profile has diminished significantly since his conviction, reducing organic political pressure for executive action compared to higher-visibility cases

What moved the line

• Sep 19Larry Householder↓11pp16→5¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Larry Householder↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Michael Cohen↓5pp29→24¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Michael Cohen↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds