Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
188 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Nicole Daedone
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-NDAE
Cluster 2
Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Rachel Cherwitz
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-RCHE
Cluster 3
Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Elizabeth Holmes
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EHOL
Cluster 4
Will Charlie Javice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Charlie Javice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Charlie Javice
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-CJAV
Cluster 5
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Roger Ver
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-RVER
Cluster 6
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Julian Assange
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JASS
Cluster 7
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-KROD
Cluster 8
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT
Cluster 9
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Derek Chauvin
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU
Cluster 10
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Edward Snowden
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ESNO
Cluster 11
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Steve Bannon
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN
Cluster 12
Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Martin Shkreli
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MSH
Cluster 13
Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: John Kiriakou
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR
Cluster 14
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Ghislaine Maxwell
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX
Cluster 15
Will Nicolás Maduro receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Nicolás Maduro receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Nicolás Maduro
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-NMAD
Cluster 16
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Eric Adams
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA
Cluster 17
Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Hwang
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BHWA
Cluster 18
Will Braden John Karony receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Braden John Karony receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Braden John Karony
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BJK
Cluster 19
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Bob Menendez
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder will receive a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Householder was convicted in 2021 of federal racketeering and bribery charges related to a $60 million corruption scheme, making him a lower-profile figure compared to other pardon candidates. The 12% probability suggests traders see meaningful but limited odds of a pardon during the current presidential term. Key drivers would include whether Householder receives prominent advocacy from political allies, whether the Justice Department reopens aspects of his case, and how many high-profile pardons the administration grants overall. The main catalyst for resolution is the presidential term ending on January 1, 2027, at which point his eligibility for a pardon becomes moot.
- ›Householder's conviction involved corruption unrelated to political causes or national security, which historically receives fewer pardons than cases with ideological framing
- ›His case has generated minimal recent media coverage or public advocacy campaigns compared to other pending pardon candidates
- ›The comparison contracts show similar low probabilities for non-aligned figures (Derek Chauvin at 8%) versus higher rates for perceived political allies or security-related cases (John Kiriakou at 44%)
- ›Ohio remains a politically significant state, which could increase likelihood of state-focused criminal justice interventions
- ›The eight-month timeline constrains opportunities for new developments or advocacy campaigns that could shift likelihood
What moved the line
- Jun 21John Kiriakou↓8pp25→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Martin Shkreli↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22John Kiriakou↓7pp17→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Roger Ver↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Charlie Javice↓5pp29→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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