Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$372
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: John Kiriakou
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKIR
Cluster 2
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Julian Assange
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JASS
Cluster 3
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 4
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Edward Snowden
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ESNO
Cluster 5
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT
Cluster 6
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-KROD
Cluster 7
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Derek Chauvin
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU
Cluster 8
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Bankman-Fried
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBF
Cluster 9
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Jared Kushner
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKUS
Cluster 10
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Eric Adams
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA
Cluster 11
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Steve Bannon
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN
Cluster 12
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Bob Menendez
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN
Cluster 13
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Roger Ver
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-RVER
Cluster 14
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Matt Borges
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MBOR
Cluster 15
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Sean Combs
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SCOM
Cluster 16
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Robin Smith
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-RSMI
Cluster 17
Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Larry Householder
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-LHOU
Cluster 18
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Joseph Maldonado
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JMAL
Cluster 19
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Torence Hatch
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-THAT
Cluster 20
Will Kenneth Petty receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Will Kenneth Petty receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenneth Petty
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-KPET
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder will receive a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Householder was convicted in 2021 of federal racketeering and bribery charges related to a $60 million corruption scheme, making him a lower-profile figure compared to other pardon candidates. The 12% probability suggests traders see meaningful but limited odds of a pardon during the current presidential term. Key drivers would include whether Householder receives prominent advocacy from political allies, whether the Justice Department reopens aspects of his case, and how many high-profile pardons the administration grants overall. The main catalyst for resolution is the presidential term ending on January 1, 2027, at which point his eligibility for a pardon becomes moot.
- ›Householder's conviction involved corruption unrelated to political causes or national security, which historically receives fewer pardons than cases with ideological framing
- ›His case has generated minimal recent media coverage or public advocacy campaigns compared to other pending pardon candidates
- ›The comparison contracts show similar low probabilities for non-aligned figures (Derek Chauvin at 8%) versus higher rates for perceived political allies or security-related cases (John Kiriakou at 44%)
- ›Ohio remains a politically significant state, which could increase likelihood of state-focused criminal justice interventions
- ›The eight-month timeline constrains opportunities for new developments or advocacy campaigns that could shift likelihood
What moved the line
- May 7Steve Bannon↑6pp11→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 2John Kiriakou↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Ghislaine Maxwell↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Derek Chauvin↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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