Jordan Bardella · KXFRENCHPRES-27
Jordan Bardella is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside KXFRENCHPRES-27.
Price history
34¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Jordan Bardella wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jordan Bardella
Rank
#1 of 11
Leader
Jordan Bardella 32¢
Range
1¢-32¢
Family volume
$448
Identifier
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JBAR
Jun 23, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$284
Family rank
#1 of 11
11 outcomes · KXFRENCHPRES-27
Closes
May 30, 2028
Family volume
$448
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jordan Bardella wins the next French presidential election (currently scheduled for 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 30, 2028
Identifier
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JBAR
Event family
KXFRENCHPRES-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$448
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Jordan Bardella 32¢
Current share
63%
Jordan Bardella
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-JBAR
Édouard Philippe
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-EPHI
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-JMEL
Marine Le Pen
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP
David Lisnard
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-DLIS
Gabriel Attal
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-GATT
Sarah Knafo
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-SKNA
Dominique de Villepin
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-DVIL
Bruno Retailleau
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-BRET
François Hollande
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-FHOL
François Ruffin
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-FRUF
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.