Marine Le Pen · KXFRENCHPRES-27
Marine Le Pen is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside KXFRENCHPRES-27.
Price history
37¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Marine Le Pen
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Marine Le Pen 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$433
Identifier
KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP
Aug 19, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$382
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · KXFRENCHPRES-27
Closes
May 30, 2028
Family volume
$433
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 30, 2028
Identifier
KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP
Event family
KXFRENCHPRES-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$433
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Marine Le Pen 37¢
Current share
88%
Marine Le Pen
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP
Édouard Philippe
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-EPHI
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-JMEL
François Hollande
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-FHOL
Jordan Bardella
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-JBAR
Sarah Knafo
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-SKNA
Dominique de Villepin
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-DVIL
François Ruffin
kalshi · KXFRENCHPRES-27-FRUF
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.