Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2028. Le Pen's contract has collapsed from 8¢ to 3¢ over seven days, now pricing her at just 5% to win, yet the extreme 1523.6% implied yield on the Yes side and 20.87 volatility ratio suggest severe illiquidity with only $5,536 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
Le Pen's contract has collapsed from 8¢ to 3¢ over seven days, now pricing her at just 5% to win, yet the extreme 1523.6% implied yield on the Yes side and 20.87 volatility ratio suggest severe illiquidity with only $5,536 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 8¢ bid-ask spread is notably wide for such a low-probability event, and the 32 cliff risk index combined with 12,681% realized volatility indicates this thin market is prone to sharp repricing, making any position here highly speculative despite the long 775-day runway to the 2027 election.
Also on polymarket at 6¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
If Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP yes 100