SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027237 days left

Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

This contract is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 5¢ spread.

Implied probability

8¢
$224 volume
$220 liquidity
54% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$413

Best sibling

John Kiriakou 39¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JMAL

Market snapshot

Joseph Maldonado in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?. The displayed quote is 8¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $224. In the KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01 family, this outcome ranks #16 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Joseph Maldonado

Family rank

#16 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jan 1, 2027

Reported volume

$224

Family context

16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01

Quote range

3¢-39¢

Family leader

John Kiriakou 39¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Venue identifier: KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JMAL. Family volume: $413.

Price history

8¢ current

+6¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 14, 2026Apr 23, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 8¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
100¢950
100¢130
3¢5
2¢169
AskSize
8¢250
8¢82
10¢500
67¢200
68¢1.7K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Joseph Maldonado has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JMAL

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4971.9%

IY (No)

4.8%

Adj IY

2486%

CRI

32

Overround

2.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4971.9%
4.8%
Adj IY
2486%
32
Overround
2.3%

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