Martin Shkreli · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01
Martin Shkreli is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.
Price history
2¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Martin Shkreli has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Martin Shkreli
Rank
#15 of 16
Leader
Michael Cohen 25¢
Range
2¢-25¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MSH
Sep 21, 2026, 10:54 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$25K
Family rank
#15 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Martin Shkreli has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MSH
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Michael Cohen 25¢
Current share
0%
Michael Cohen
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MCOH
Keonne Rodriguez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-KROD
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-BMEN
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU
Steve Bannon
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBAN
Sam Bankman-Fried
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SBF
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DJT
Jared Kushner
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JKUS
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX
Roger Ver
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-RVER
Sean Combs
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-SCOM
Edward Snowden
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-ESNO
Eric Adams
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA
Julian Assange
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-JASS
Martin Shkreli
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MSH
Matt Borges
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-MBOR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.