Juan Soto · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26
Juan Soto is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 27¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
If Juan Soto is selected as a participant in the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Juan Soto
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Pete Alonso 31¢
Range
1¢-31¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JSOTO22
Jul 12, 2026, 2:17 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
27¢
24h volume
$605
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 27¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Juan Soto is selected as a participant in the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
Identifier
KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JSOTO22
Event family
KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Pete Alonso 31¢
Current share
10%
Pete Alonso
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-PALONSO25
James Wood
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JWOOD29
Bobby Witt Jr.
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-BWITT7
Matt Olson
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MOLSON28
Yordan Alvarez
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-YALVAREZ44
Mike Trout
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MTROUT27
Shohei Ohtani
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-SOHTANI17
Juan Soto
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JSOTO22
Gunnar Henderson
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-GHENDERSON2
Hunter Goodman
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-HGOODMAN15
Aaron Judge
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-AJUDGE99
Colson Montgomery
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-CMONTGOMERY12
Andy Pages
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-APAGES44
Dillon Dingler
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-DDINGLER13
Michael Harris
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MHARRIS23
Max Muncy (LAD)
kalshi · KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MMUNCY13
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.