SimpleFunctions

Kaan Ofli · KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27OFLREY

Kaan Ofli is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 40¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27OFLREY.

Price history

41¢ current

+3¢
35¢40¢45¢
Jun 21, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Kaan Ofli wins the Ofli vs Reyes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Kaan Ofli

Rank

#2 of 2

Leader

Javier Reyes 60¢

Range

40¢-60¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27OFLREY-OFL

Jun 25, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

41¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

40¢

Ask

41¢

Spread

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#2 of 2

2 outcomes · KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27OFLREY

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

40 / 41¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
40¢43
39¢159
36¢39
35¢471
34¢1.7K
AskSize
41¢4.5K
42¢3.0K
43¢830
44¢400
45¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Kaan Ofli wins the Ofli vs Reyes professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Identifier

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27OFLREY-OFL

SF Signal
SF Index
3326.02
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN27OFLREY.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$2K

Outcomes

2

Highest price

Javier Reyes 60¢

Current share

65%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3405.5%

IY (No)

1513.5%

Adj IY

3326%

CRI

2

RV

173%

VR

0.29

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3405.5%
1513.5%
Adj IY
3326%
2
RV
173%
VR
0.29
IAR
0.3/h

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.