SimpleFunctions

Kanye West / Ye perform at Madison Square Garden (MSG) between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

Madison Square Garden (MSG) is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Will Kanye West / Ye perform at.

Price history

25¢ current

+10¢
20¢
May 26, 2026Jun 22, 2026

Contract brief

If Kanye West / Ye performs at Madison Square Garden (MSG) between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Madison Square Garden (MSG)

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Soldier Field 81¢

Range

1¢-81¢

Family volume

$1

Identifier

KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-MSG

Jun 23, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

25¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

17¢

Ask

25¢

Spread

Reported volume

$7K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Kanye West / Ye perform at

Closes

Jan 8, 2027

Family volume

$1

Orderbook snapshot

17 / 25¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
17¢32
16¢500
5¢204
3¢53
2¢1.0K
AskSize
25¢500
40¢70
69¢352
70¢893
79¢38

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Kanye West / Ye performs at Madison Square Garden (MSG) between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 8, 2027

Identifier

KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-MSG

SF Signal
SF Index
447.11
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

894.2%

IY (No)

37.5%

Adj IY

447%

CRI

5

Overround

0.8%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

894.2%
37.5%
Adj IY
447%
5
Overround
0.8%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.