Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Madison Square Garden (MSG) between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Leader sits at 81% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Soldier Field
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Allegiant Stadium
Spread
56pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$305
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
201 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Madison Square Garden (MSG) between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Madison Square Garden (MSG)
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-MSG
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Soldier Field between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Soldier Field
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-SOL
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Gillette Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Gillette Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-GIL
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Allegiant Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Allegiant Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-ALL
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Hard Rock Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Hard Rock Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-HAR
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at Mercedes-Benz Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-MER
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at MetLife Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: MetLife Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-MET
Will Kanye West / Ye perform at AT&T Stadium between February 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: AT&T Stadium
KXVENUEPERFORMANCEYE-27JAN01-ATT
Analysis
This market estimates a 30% chance that Kanye West will perform at Madison Square Garden sometime between now and the end of 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about both his performance schedule and his current trajectory as a recording and touring artist. Key factors influencing the price include whether he announces a tour, his recent activity level in the music industry, and historical patterns of major artist MSG bookings. The market shows relatively modest trading volume ($39 in the past 24 hours), suggesting limited consensus among traders. Resolution depends on whether any MSG performance occurs—regardless of venue size, ticket sales, or other details—before December 31, 2026. The 28-cent price on the sister contract for Mercedes-Benz Stadium suggests traders view other major venues as somewhat less likely but still plausible alternatives.
- ›No announced MSG tour dates or performances as of early May 2026
- ›Trading volume of $39 in 24 hours indicates moderate but not overwhelming market interest
- ›28% probability implies roughly 3-in-10 odds, reflecting meaningful uncertainty rather than strong conviction either direction
- ›Related contracts (Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 7¢, other artists at 9-19¢) show this is not positioned as a high-probability event
- ›Resolution depends solely on whether a performance occurs—announcement of tour dates would likely shift probabilities significantly upward
What moved the line
- Jun 15Soldier Field↑50pp31→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Soldier Field↑4pp81→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Soldier Field↓4pp85→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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