Kash Patel · KXARREST-27JAN
Kash Patel is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside KXARREST-27JAN.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
If Kash Patel is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Kash Patel
Rank
#14 of 16
Leader
John Brennan 43¢
Range
2¢-43¢
Family volume
$580
Identifier
KXARREST-27JAN-KPAT
Jun 25, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#14 of 16
16 outcomes · KXARREST-27JAN
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$580
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Kash Patel is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXARREST-27JAN-KPAT
Event family
KXARREST-27JAN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$580
Outcomes
16
Highest price
John Brennan 43¢
Current share
0%
John Brennan
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-JBRE
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-JZAP
Mahmoud Khalil
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-MKHA
Anthony Fauci
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
Gavin Newsom
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-GNEW
Loretta Lynch
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-LLYN
Adam Schiff
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-ASCH
Tom Homan
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-THOM
Hillary Clinton
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-HCLIN
Barack Obama
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-BOM
Benjamin Netanyahu
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-BNET
Bill Clinton
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-BCLIN
Candace Owens
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-COWE
Kash Patel
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-KPAT
Joe Biden
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-JBID
Brandon Johnson
kalshi · KXARREST-27JAN-BJOH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.