Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing October 17, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 199.6% implied yield versus just 22.2% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Sim's chances relative to the No position's risk-adjusted return of 100%.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering 199.6% implied yield versus just 22.2% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Sim's chances relative to the No position's risk-adjusted return of 100%. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $5,012 open interest indicate thin liquidity despite the tight 1¢ spread, making this a speculative position with meaningful cliff risk (index of 3) as we approach the October 2027 expiration. The flat 7-day price action at 25¢ masks what appears to be a mispriced contract where contrarian bettors could find value if they believe Sim's actual win probability exceeds the 27% implied level.
Resolution rules
If Ken Sim wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-KSIM yes 100