Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $619 open interest, making the 1860.5% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 7-cent spread is substantial relative to the 14-cent price, and the dramatic realized volatility of 2639% combined with a 10 Cliff Risk Index suggests price discovery is highly unstable—the market has already declined from 12¢ to 9¢ over seven days, indicating shifting sentiment about Farington's nomination chances. With 198 days until expiry and consistent 14-cent pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket, this appears to be a thinly-traded niche market where the low probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than informed consensus.

Resolution rules

If Kim Farington wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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