Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$100
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?: Bert Mizusawa
KXSENATEVAR-26-BMIZ
Cluster 2
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?: Jason Miyares
KXSENATEVAR-26-JMIY
Cluster 3
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia?: Kim Farington
KXSENATEVAR-26-KFAR
Analysis
This probability indicates a 19% chance that Virginia's Republican Party nominates Winsome Earle-Sears, the state's current Lieutenant Governor, for the 2026 Senate race. The relatively low probability suggests markets view her as a secondary contender among Republican candidates in the state. Key drivers of this assessment likely include her prominence in Virginia politics and name recognition, balanced against potential competition from other established Republican figures or candidates. The nomination outcome will be largely determined by Virginia's Republican primary process, typically held in spring 2026, where party delegates or voters will select the nominee. The official nomination date or convention, likely occurring by June 2026, will fully resolve this market.
- ›Earle-Sears' current position as Lieutenant Governor provides name recognition and institutional support within Virginia's Republican Party
- ›Competition from other potential Republican candidates could fragment support, affecting her nomination chances relative to unified alternative candidates
- ›Virginia Republican Party rules for nominee selection (convention, primary, or hybrid process) will determine the mechanism through which Earle-Sears competes
- ›Voter or delegate sentiment on her record as Lieutenant Governor and policy positions will directly influence delegate/voter support at the nominating event
- ›National Republican political dynamics and endorsements could shift state-level nomination dynamics between now and the nominating convention
What moved the line
- Jun 19Bert Mizusawa↑14pp72→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Bert Mizusawa↓7pp77→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Kim Farington↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Kim Farington↓5pp9→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Kim Farington↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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