Kurt Alme receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election
At least 45% is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 69¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 21¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will Kurt Alme receive at least.
Price history
70¢ current
+68¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Kurt Alme in the 2026 Montana Senate election is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 45%
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
At least 35% 96¢
Range
3¢-96¢
Family volume
$740
Identifier
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-45
Sep 10, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
69¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
21¢
24h volume
$100
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Kurt Alme receive at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$740
Orderbook snapshot
69 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Kurt Alme in the 2026 Montana Senate election is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-45
Event family
Will Kurt Alme receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$740
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 35% 96¢
Current share
13%
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-35
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-40
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-45
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-50
At least 55%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-55
At least 60%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-60
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.