Will Kurt Alme receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+6pp
24h ago
24h volume
$833
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
419 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 45%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-45
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 40%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-40
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 35%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-35
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 30%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-30
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 25%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-25
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 20%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-20
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 15%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26SBOD-15
Cluster 2
Will Kurt Alme receive at least
Will Kurt Alme receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 40%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-40
Will Kurt Alme receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 45%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-45
Will Kurt Alme receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 35%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-35
Will Kurt Alme receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 60%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-60
Will Kurt Alme receive at least 55% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 55%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-55
Will Kurt Alme receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 50%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26KALM-50
Cluster 3
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 35%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26ABAN-35
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 30%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26ABAN-30
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 25%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26ABAN-25
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 20%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26ABAN-20
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 15%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26ABAN-15
Will Alani Bankhead receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 10%
KXVOTEGENERAL-SENATEMT26ABAN-10
Cluster 4
Will Pete Ricketts receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Nebraska Senate election
Analysis
This market estimates a 42% chance that Democratic candidate Kurt Alme will receive at least 35% of the popular vote in Montana's 2026 Senate election. The probability reflects uncertainty about the race's competitiveness and voter turnout patterns in a state that has leaned Republican in recent cycles. Key factors include Montana's recent electoral history, which has favored Republican Senate candidates, and the composition of likely voters in a midterm election year. The outcome will be determined when ballots are counted following the November 2026 general election, though polling aggregates and fundraising reports in the months leading up to November will provide signals about the race's trajectory.
- ›Montana has voted Republican in four of the last five Senate elections (2012 being the Democratic exception), suggesting structural disadvantage for Democratic candidates
- ›Midterm elections typically see different turnout patterns than presidential years, which could affect the Democratic vote share relative to general election baselines
- ›Fundraising and polling data from summer and fall 2026 will indicate whether Alme is competitive enough to approach or exceed the 35% threshold
- ›The Republican candidate's strength and campaign resources will directly influence how many votes are available for the Democratic candidate to capture
- ›Historical third-party and independent candidacy patterns in Montana Senate races affect the denominator for calculating vote-share percentages
What moved the line
- Sep 9At least 10%↑63pp33→96¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9At least 15%↑62pp33→95¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9At least 20%↑56pp30→86¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9At least 15%↑55pp29→84¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 9At least 40%↑45pp45→90¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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