SimpleFunctions

Will Kyle Harrison win NL Cy Young: Kyle Harrison · KXMLBNLCY-26

Will Kyle Harrison win NL Cy Young: Kyle Harrison is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXMLBNLCY-26.

Price history

3¢ current

+1¢
0¢5¢
Jun 3, 2026Jun 20, 2026

Contract brief

If Kyle Harrison wins the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will Kyle Harrison win NL Cy Young: Kyle Harrison

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Jacob Misiorowski 49¢

Range

1¢-49¢

Family volume

$9K

Identifier

KXMLBNLCY-26-KHARRISON52

Jun 23, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 5m ago

Implied probability

3¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 5m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$46K

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · KXMLBNLCY-26

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

Family volume

$9K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 3¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
3¢13K
4¢500
5¢1.1K
6¢4.6K
7¢5.6K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Kyle Harrison wins the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBNLCY-26-KHARRISON52

SF Signal
SF Index
3505.14
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

7010.3%

IY (No)

6.7%

Adj IY

3505%

CRI

32

Overround

-0.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

7010.3%
6.7%
Adj IY
3505%
32
Overround
-0.2%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.