Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$19K
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
165 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Paul Skenes win NL Cy Young
Will Paul Skenes win NL Cy Young?: Paul Skenes
KXMLBNLCY-26-PSKE
Cluster 2
Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young
Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young?: Jacob Misiorowski
KXMLBNLCY-26-JMIS
Cluster 3
Will Zack Wheeler win NL Cy Young
Will Zack Wheeler win NL Cy Young?: Zack Wheeler
KXMLBNLCY-26-ZWHE
Cluster 4
Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young
Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young?: Cristopher Sanchez
KXMLBNLCY-26-CSAN
Cluster 5
Will Chase Burns win NL Cy Young
Will Chase Burns win NL Cy Young?: Chase Burns
KXMLBNLCY-26-CBUR
Cluster 6
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Cy Young
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Cy Young?: Shohei Ohtani
KXMLBNLCY-26-SOHT
Cluster 7
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win NL Cy Young
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win NL Cy Young?: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
KXMLBNLCY-26-YYAM
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Chris Sale wins the National League Cy Young Award in 2026. At 12%, the market reflects Sale's status as a potential but not favored contender for baseball's top pitching honor. Sale's award probability would be influenced by his injury history and ability to maintain performance over a full season—he has dealt with significant arm injuries in recent years that have affected durability. The primary catalyst is the conclusion of the 2026 MLB regular season in late September, when voting determines the winner based on accumulated statistics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Voter sentiment typically favors pitchers from winning teams with low ERAs and high innings totals. The market assessment may shift substantially based on Sale's actual performance trajectory through the season and whether he avoids further injury.
- ›Chris Sale's innings pitched and ERA through the 2026 season relative to other NL starters
- ›Sale's team's winning percentage and playoff positioning, as voters tend to favor pitchers from successful teams
- ›Availability and performance of competing NL pitchers during the 2026 season
- ›Sale's durability record given prior shoulder and elbow injuries that have limited his availability
- ›The relative voting weight given to strikeouts, wins, and ERA by Cy Young voters in previous years
What moved the line
- Jun 26Jacob Misiorowski↑11pp51→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Cristopher Sanchez↓6pp24→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Jacob Misiorowski↓4pp54→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Jacob Misiorowski↑4pp47→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Cristopher Sanchez↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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