Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
3 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young
Will Jacob Misiorowski win NL Cy Young?: Jacob Misiorowski
KXMLBNLCY-26-JMIS
Cluster 2
Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young
Will Cristopher Sanchez win NL Cy Young?: Cristopher Sanchez
KXMLBNLCY-26-CSAN
Cluster 3
Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young
Will Chris Sale win NL Cy Young?: Chris Sale
KXMLBNLCY-26-CSAL
Analysis
This 32% probability indicates traders view Chris Sale as having roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. Sale's odds reflect the typical uncertainty around mid-season pitcher performance and health durability. Upward movement would depend on sustained excellence in ERA, strikeout rates, and innings pitched through season's end, while declines would follow injury setbacks or statistical regression. The probability will resolve definitively when MLB awards the Cy Young in November, based on voting by baseball writers who weigh complete-season statistics like ERA, WHIP, wins, and strikeouts. Near-term trading activity appears light, with minimal 24-hour volume, suggesting limited market confidence in current pricing or modest trader interest in this specific outcome.
- ›Chris Sale's current ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate relative to other NL starting pitchers through August 2026
- ›Health status and injury history; any missed starts or rehabilitation periods would materially reduce Cy Young viability
- ›Innings pitched through season's end; voters historically favor pitchers who accumulate sufficient workload (typically 180+ innings)
- ›Performance in September and October; late-season statistics often influence close Cy Young voting
- ›Relative statistical performance of competing pitchers, particularly Misiorowski (83¢ implied probability) and other top NL starters
What moved the line
- Aug 22Jacob Misiorowski↑26pp63→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Jacob Misiorowski↓24pp87→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Cristopher Sanchez↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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