SimpleFunctions

Lana Del Rey · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Lana Del Rey is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

Price history

28¢ current

+13¢
20¢30¢
May 1, 2026May 18, 2026

Contract brief

If Lana Del Rey has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Lana Del Rey

Rank

#11 of 16

Leader

Olivia Rodrigo 96¢

Range

1¢-96¢

Family volume

$3K

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-LAN

May 27, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

28¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

28¢

Ask

34¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#11 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Family volume

$3K

Orderbook snapshot

28 / 34¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
28¢50
22¢500
14¢16
13¢400
8¢60
AskSize
35¢500
58¢400
73¢1.2K
74¢450

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Lana Del Rey has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-LAN

SF Signal
SF Index
172.64
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

439.5%

IY (No)

66.5%

Adj IY

173%

CRI

3

Overround

12.7%

LAS

0.21

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

439.5%
66.5%
Adj IY
173%
3
Overround
12.7%
LAS
0.21

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.