SimpleFunctions

Larry Page · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31

Larry Page is priced at 85¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 69¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 9 inside KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31.

Price history

85¢ current

+10¢
75¢
May 26, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Larry Page is one of the three wealthiest people in the world on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Larry Page

Rank

#2 of 9

Leader

Elon Musk 98¢

Range

2¢-98¢

Family volume

$237

Identifier

KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-LARRP

Jun 25, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

85¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

69¢

Ask

70¢

Spread

Reported volume

$11K

Family rank

#2 of 9

9 outcomes · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$237

Orderbook snapshot

69 / 70¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
69¢9
68¢200
67¢449
45¢24
44¢1.3K
AskSize
70¢1
71¢28
93¢52
94¢1.0K
95¢167

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Larry Page is one of the three wealthiest people in the world on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-LARRP

SF Signal
SF Index
214.11
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

86.4%

IY (No)

428.2%

Adj IY

214%

CRI

2

Overround

0.9%

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

86.4%
428.2%
Adj IY
214%
2
Overround
0.9%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.