Will Mark Zuckerberg be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Larry Page be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Larry Page be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Larry Page
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-LARRP
Cluster 2
Will Elon Musk be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Elon Musk be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Elon Musk
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-ELON
Cluster 3
Will Jeff Bezos be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Jeff Bezos be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Jeff Bezos
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-JEFF
Cluster 4
Will Mark Zuckerberg be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Mark Zuckerberg be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-MARK
Cluster 5
Will Jensen Huang be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Jensen Huang be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Jensen Huang
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-JENS
Cluster 6
Will Larry Ellison be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Larry Ellison be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Larry Ellison
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-LARR
Cluster 7
Will Warren Buffett be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Warren Buffett be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Warren Buffett
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-WARR
Cluster 8
Will Sergey Brin be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Sergey Brin be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Sergey Brin
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-SERG
Cluster 9
Will Steve Ballmer be one of the three wealthiest people in the world
Will Steve Ballmer be one of the three wealthiest people in the world?: Steve Ballmer
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-STEV
Analysis
This probability estimates a 37% chance that Mark Zuckerberg ranks among the world's three wealthiest individuals by the resolution date. Zuckerberg's wealth position depends primarily on Meta's stock performance and broader technology sector valuations, which have been volatile. His current ranking relative to other ultra-high-net-worth individuals—particularly Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and other tech leaders—fluctuates based on daily market movements and their respective companies' performance. The primary driver of change would be sustained shifts in Meta's market capitalization relative to competitors, major strategic company moves, or significant personal transactions. Real-time wealth rankings show constant movement, making this outcome sensitive to both company fundamentals and market sentiment. The resolution hinges on final wealth rankings at a specified date, making this dependent on factors beyond any single announcement.
- ›Meta's stock price relative to 2026 baseline and performance of companies owned by other ultra-wealthy individuals
- ›Total market capitalization changes in technology sector versus other industries holding billionaire wealth
- ›Major acquisitions, divestitures, or strategic changes affecting Zuckerberg's or competitors' net worth
- ›Regulatory or antitrust actions that could materially impact Meta's valuation or Zuckerberg's stake
- ›Personal wealth transactions by Zuckerberg or other top-ranked billionaires that alter their relative positions
What moved the line
- May 6Jensen Huang↓3pp8→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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