Warren Buffett · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31
Warren Buffett is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 9 inside KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31.
Price history
4¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Warren Buffett is one of the three wealthiest people in the world on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Warren Buffett
Rank
#8 of 9
Leader
Elon Musk 92¢
Range
2¢-92¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-WARR
Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#8 of 9
9 outcomes · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Warren Buffett is one of the three wealthiest people in the world on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-WARR
Event family
KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Elon Musk 92¢
Current share
0%
Elon Musk
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-ELON
Larry Page
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-LARRP
Sergey Brin
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-SERG
Jeff Bezos
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-JEFF
Mark Zuckerberg
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-MARK
Larry Ellison
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-LARR
Jensen Huang
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-JENS
Warren Buffett
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-WARR
Steve Ballmer
kalshi · KXTOP3WEALTH-26DEC31-STEV
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.