SimpleFunctions

Lil Uzi Vert · KX10SONG-26

Lil Uzi Vert is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KX10SONG-26.

Price history

21¢ current

20¢
20¢30¢40¢
Jul 8, 2026Aug 3, 2026

Contract brief

If Lil Uzi Vert has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Lil Uzi Vert

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

The Weeknd 53¢

Range

1¢-53¢

Family volume

$825

Identifier

KX10SONG-26-UZI

Aug 5, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

21¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 5, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

22¢

Ask

33¢

Spread

11¢

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · KX10SONG-26

Closes

Dec 26, 2026

Family volume

$825

Orderbook snapshot

22 / 33¢

Kalshi
11¢ spread
BidSize
22¢4
21¢192
20¢100
19¢200
6¢54
AskSize
33¢6
34¢20
38¢61
43¢200
52¢400

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Lil Uzi Vert has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 26, 2026

Identifier

KX10SONG-26-UZI

SF Signal
SF Index
453.49
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

907.0%

IY (No)

72.2%

Adj IY

453%

CRI

4

Overround

12.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

907.0%
72.2%
Adj IY
453%
4
Overround
12.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.