Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 39¢ (39% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 2, 2026. 103 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 960.6% and 131.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	960.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	131.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	480%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup?

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