Luis Castillo · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05
Luis Castillo is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 44¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05.
Price history
70¢ current
+55¢Contract brief
If Luis Castillo is traded before Aug 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Luis Castillo
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Aroldis Chapman 81¢
Range
3¢-81¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LCAS
Jul 13, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
44¢
24h volume
$188
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 70¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Luis Castillo is traded before Aug 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
Identifier
KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LCAS
Event family
KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Aroldis Chapman 81¢
Current share
9%
Aroldis Chapman
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ACHA
Joe Ryan
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JRYA
Tarik Skubal
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-TSKU
Sonny Gray
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-SGRA
Jarren Duran
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JDUR
Rafael Devers
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-RDEV
Luis Severino
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LSEV
Willson Contreras
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-WCON
Christian Walker
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-CWAL
Jo Adell
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JADE
Luis Castillo
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-LCAS
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JCHI
Sandy Alcantara
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-SALC
Fernando Tatis Jr.
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-FTAT
Steven Kwan
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-SKWA
Zac Gallen
kalshi · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-ZGAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.