Will Sandy Alcantara be traded before Aug 5, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 27% chance that Sandy Alcántara, a Miami Marlins pitcher, will be traded before August 5, 2026. The low probability reflects that Alcántara is a valuable franchise cornerstone under contract and the Marlins have little financial incentive to trade him mid-season. The estimate could shift based on two factors: the team's win-loss record by late July, which would signal whether they're competitive enough to retain him, and any reported trade interest or negotiations emerging in late July when contending teams typically become active in the trade deadline market. The critical resolution point is the MLB trade deadline on August 5, 2026, after which any trade would render the contract void. Current low trading volume ($2 in 24-hour volume) suggests limited market attention to this specific outcome.

• ›Alcántara's injury history and current health status entering summer, which affects both his trade value and the Marlins' willingness to retain him
• ›Miami's competitive position and playoff odds by late July, determining whether they view the team as a contender worth keeping their ace or a seller worth trading him
• ›Reports of trade interest from contending teams with available prospects and payroll capacity between late July and August 5
• ›Alcántara's contract terms and any no-trade clause provisions that could restrict potential destinations
• ›The broader trade market activity level in late July, as deadline activity typically intensifies only in the final 2-3 weeks before August 5

What moved the line

• Jul 12Tarik Skubal↓39pp69→30¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 13Sonny Gray↓36pp56→20¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 6Luis Severino↑18pp20→38¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Sandy Alcantara↓16pp36→20¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 6Jo Adell↑15pp13→28¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds