Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is priced at 76¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04.
Price history
76¢ current
+51¢Contract brief
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 70¢
Range
1¢-70¢
Family volume
$14
Identifier
KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-LSIL
Jun 24, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
70¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$14
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Family volume
$14
Orderbook snapshot
70 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-LSIL
Event family
KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 70¢
Current share
100%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-LSIL
Flávio Bolsonaro
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FBOL
Renan Santos
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-RSAN
Fernando Haddad
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FHAD
Romeu Zema
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-RZEM
Ronaldo Caiado
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-RCAI
Tarcísio de Freitas
kalshi · KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-TFRE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.