Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$343
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
466 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro will receive the most votes in Brazil's first-round presidential voting on October 2, 2026, without winning outright (requiring a runoff). The 19% assessment sits notably below frontrunner Lula at 42% but above other major candidates, positioning Bolsonaro as a secondary contender in current market sentiment. Key drivers include Flávio's political positioning as the primary Bolsonaro family representative after Jair's legal challenges, his base of support among conservative voters, and the fragmentation of Brazil's electoral landscape. The probability could shift significantly based on polling movements closer to the election, any major political developments affecting the Bolsonaro family's viability, or changes in voter consolidation patterns as candidates enter or withdraw from the race.
- ›Current polling aggregates show Flávio trailing Lula substantially but competitive with other major candidates in first-round vote-share scenarios
- ›Flávio's campaign viability depends partly on whether legal or political obstacles prevent his candidacy or significantly damage his support base
- ›Electoral consolidation patterns remain fluid; candidate dropout decisions and voter realignment in the final months could substantially alter first-round dynamics
- ›The Bolsonaro family's political capital and voter loyalty following the 2022 election and subsequent developments continue to shape his ceiling and floor
What moved the line
- Jun 20Flávio Bolsonaro↓6pp23→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Flávio Bolsonaro↓6pp17→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑5pp63→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑5pp69→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Flávio Bolsonaro↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (42% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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