M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 below 5.0%
Below 5.0% is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026.
Price history
20¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is below 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Below 5.0%
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
5.5% to 5.9% 19¢
Range
12¢-19¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-T5.0
Jul 21, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$162
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 is below 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
Identifier
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-T5.0
Event family
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
5.5% to 5.9% 19¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.