Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%
Leader sits at 19% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
5.5% to 5.9%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
6.0% to 6.4%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
191 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?: Below 5.0%
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-T5.0
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?: 6.5% or Above
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-T6.5
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?: 6.0% to 6.4%
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-B6.2
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?: 5.5% to 5.9%
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-B5.7
Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?: 5.0% to 5.4%
KXM2GROWTH-27JAN26-B5.2
Analysis
This market is pricing a 22% probability that year-over-year M2 money-supply growth will fall below 5.0% by December 2026. The current market consensus leans toward growth between 6.0% and 6.4%, suggesting expectations for moderately expansionary monetary conditions. M2 growth depends primarily on Federal Reserve policy rates and the overall stance of monetary accommodation—lower interest rates and quantitative easing would increase growth, while rate hikes or balance sheet runoff would decrease it. The outcome will be heavily influenced by inflation and employment data reported through late 2026, along with FOMC policy decisions. The exact December figure will be released by the Federal Reserve in early January 2027, resolving all contracts simultaneously. Traders are currently assigning low probability to the below-5.0% scenario, implying expectations that the Fed will either maintain accommodative conditions or that growth will not decelerate sharply.
- ›Federal Reserve funds rate path through Q4 2026—each 25bp cut typically adds roughly 0.5-1.0pp to trailing M2 growth; current market pricing suggests limited additional easing
- ›Realized inflation data and labor market strength reported June through November 2026—persistent high inflation or tight employment reduces likelihood of aggressive rate cuts
- ›M2 velocity trends and demand for money balances; if velocity remains elevated, nominal M2 growth may compress even without tighter policy
- ›Cumulative monetary base expansion or contraction through balance sheet policy (QE/QT) during the second half of 2026
- ›Year-over-year comparison base effect—December 2025 M2 level will anchor the denominator for the year-over-year calculation released January 2027
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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