Will Mallory McMorrow be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Mallory McMorrow be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 62¢ to 48¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrival about McMorrow's nomination prospects at a rate of 0.4 events per hour.
Analysis
This market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 62¢ to 48¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrival about McMorrow's nomination prospects at a rate of 0.4 events per hour. The 197% implied yield on the Yes side reflects substantial compensation for binary event risk, though the tight 1¢ spread and modest $5,865 daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for a high-stakes political nomination market with over 200 days to expiration. The elevated realized volatility of 198% and vol ratio of 1.42 confirm this is a highly uncertain market where sentiment has shifted materially against McMorrow's chances.
Also on polymarket at 48¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Mallory McMorrow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMID-26-MMCM yes 100