Will Mallory McMorrow finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Mallory McMorrow finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing August 4, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 289% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 20% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about McMorrow's viability as a second-place finisher in a potentially crowded primary field.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 289% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 20% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about McMorrow's viability as a second-place finisher in a potentially crowded primary field. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 29¢ price, and minimal liquidity ($44.81 in both volume and open interest) indicates thin trading that could exacerbate execution challenges for larger positions. With 475 days until expiry, there's substantial time for the Michigan Democratic primary landscape to shift, though the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggest no immediate catalysts are priced in.
Resolution rules
If Mallory McMorrow finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENATEMID26-2-MMCM yes 100