Marc Sumerlin · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01
Marc Sumerlin is priced at 23¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01.
Price history
23¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Marc Sumerlin formally holds the position of President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Marc Sumerlin
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Michael Faulkender 36¢
Range
1¢-36¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-MSUM
Aug 5, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01
Closes
Jan 8, 2030
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Marc Sumerlin formally holds the position of President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 8, 2030
Identifier
KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-MSUM
Event family
KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Michael Faulkender 36¢
Current share
—
Michael Faulkender
kalshi · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-MFAU
Marc Sumerlin
kalshi · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-MSUM
David Altig
kalshi · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-DALT
Paula Tkac
kalshi · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-PTKA
Rebecca Patterson
kalshi · KXNEXTATLFED-30JAN01-RPAT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.