Will Marc Sumerlin be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2030
1250 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will David Altig be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030
Cluster 2
Will Michael Faulkender be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030
Cluster 3
Will Marc Sumerlin be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030
Cluster 4
Will Paula Tkac be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta before Jan 1, 2030
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Marc Sumerlin will become President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta within the next 3.5 years. The current 18% assessment suggests the market views him as a plausible but not leading candidate among several options. The main factors driving this level are Sumerlin's existing position within the Federal Reserve system, his track record, and the timing of when the current Atlanta Fed president's term may conclude or end. Competition from other candidates, particularly Michael Faulkender (trading at 36¢), suggests the market perceives stronger credentials or higher likelihood for other contenders. The resolution will ultimately depend on when a vacancy occurs at the Atlanta Fed and how decision-makers evaluate candidates against the broader pool. Any major policy decisions or statements from the Federal Reserve's leadership selection process would likely shift these probabilities significantly.
- ›Current Atlanta Fed president's anticipated departure date or end-of-term status
- ›Sumerlin's prior career trajectory, positions held, and policy track record relative to competing candidates
- ›Market probability for Faulkender at 36¢ suggests at least one alternative candidate is viewed as substantially more likely
- ›Distribution across five candidates shows no dominant frontrunner, indicating genuine uncertainty about the succession
- ›Any public statements or signals from the Federal Reserve Board regarding selection criteria or timeline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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