Margaret Qualley · KXPERFORMROLE007
Margaret Qualley is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 69¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXPERFORMROLE007.
Price history
28¢ current
+18¢Contract brief
If Margaret Qualley performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Margaret Qualley
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Margaret Qualley 19¢
Range
1¢-19¢
Family volume
$635
Identifier
KXPERFORMROLE007-MAR
May 28, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
69¢
24h volume
$280
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · KXPERFORMROLE007
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
Family volume
$635
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Margaret Qualley performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
Identifier
KXPERFORMROLE007-MAR
Event family
KXPERFORMROLE007.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$635
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Margaret Qualley 19¢
Current share
44%
Margaret Qualley
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-MAR
Sydney Sweeney
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-SYD
Florence Pugh
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-FLO
Anya Taylor-Joy
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-ANY
Lily James
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-LIL
Adria Arjona
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-ADR
Daisy Edgar-Jones
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-DAI
Zendaya
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-ZEN
Cailee Spaeny
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-CAI
Hunter Schafer
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-HUN
Mikey Madison
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-MIK
Alicia Vikander
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-ALI
Ana de Armas
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-ANA
Emma Mackey
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-EMM
Jodie Comer
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-JOD
Vanessa Kirby
kalshi · KXPERFORMROLE007-VAN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.