Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

7¢

Bid/Ask 0/5¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $127·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-MOLS

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $127 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 2572% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of thin markets where even small position sizes create outsized percentage returns, though the 5¢ spread suggests difficulty finding counterparties. With 189 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 13, this contract faces meaningful uncertainty around whether Olson will maintain elite RBI production through the full 2026 season, making the low probability pricing somewhat speculative given his historical performance as a consistent power hitter.

Resolution rules

If Matt Olson leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2579.8%

IY (No) 14.6%

Adj IY 1290%

CRI 13

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2579.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1290%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:46:55 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-MOLS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →