Maxwell Frazier · KXHI01D-26
Maxwell Frazier is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside KXHI01D-26.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
If Maxwell Frazier wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Hawaii first congressional district House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Maxwell Frazier
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Ed Case 69¢
Range
4¢-69¢
Family volume
$379
Identifier
KXHI01D-26-MFRA
Jun 25, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · KXHI01D-26
Closes
Aug 8, 2027
Family volume
$379
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Maxwell Frazier wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Hawaii first congressional district House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 8, 2027
Identifier
KXHI01D-26-MFRA
Event family
KXHI01D-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$379
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Ed Case 69¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.