Will Maxwell Frazier be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$110
3 contracts
Closes
Aug 8, 2027
409 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district
Cluster 2
Will Ed Case be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district
Will Ed Case be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district?: Ed Case
KXHI01D-26-ECAS
Cluster 3
Will Maxwell Frazier be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district
Will Maxwell Frazier be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district?: Maxwell Frazier
KXHI01D-26-MFRA
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated chance that Maxwell Frazier will win the Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district. The 32% probability reflects a competitive but uncertain race, with market data showing Ed Case as the front-runner at 66%, while Frazier and Jarrett Keohokalole represent alternative candidates. The current assessment suggests Frazier is positioned as a meaningful challenger but faces significant headwinds against Case's established support. The race will be resolved through the Democratic primary election, where candidate fundraising, endorsements, voter registration trends, and campaign organization will ultimately determine the nomination. Key uncertainties include whether Frazier can consolidate support among voters seeking an alternative to Case, and whether late-campaign developments or voter mobilization efforts shift the race dynamics before primary voting occurs.
- ›Ed Case's commanding 66% contract price indicates strong market confidence in his nomination, suggesting Frazier must overcome substantial structural advantages held by the front-runner
- ›The low absolute prices for both Frazier (4¢) and Keohokalole (27¢) combined approach Case's position, indicating market uncertainty about whether Case support is as durable as prices suggest
- ›Frazier's trading volume ($40 24h) is lower than Ed Case ($136 24h), potentially reflecting less developed market confidence or retail attention compared to the presumed front-runner
- ›The Democratic primary date and filing deadline will establish definitive candidate participation, with any late entrants or withdrawals materially altering competitive dynamics
- ›Local endorsements from Hawaii Democratic establishment figures and union organizations traditionally carry significant weight in determining nomination outcomes in the state
What moved the line
- Jun 24Jarrett Keohokalole↑6pp20→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Ed Case↓4pp73→69¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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