Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?: Michele Tafoya
KXSENATEMNR-26-MTAF
Cluster 2
Will Mark York be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota
Will Mark York be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?: Mark York
KXSENATEMNR-26-MYOR
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Royce White will win the Republican primary for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat. At 48%, the market indicates near-parity between White becoming the nominee and an alternative candidate emerging. The primary dynamic centers on White's name recognition and existing political profile against potential challengers and party establishment preferences. Key drivers of movement would include polling data from Minnesota Republicans, candidate entry/exit decisions, endorsements from state party leadership, and fundraising performance. The resolution hinges on Minnesota's Republican primary election results, which will occur during the 2026 election cycle. Until the primary date arrives, market participants will adjust probabilities based on campaign announcements, debate performance, and emerging polling that clarifies voter sentiment among Minnesota Republicans.
- ›Royce White's current public visibility and prior candidacy history in Minnesota politics
- ›Number and profile of alternative Republican candidates choosing to enter the Minnesota Senate primary race
- ›Endorsements and resource allocation decisions by Minnesota Republican Party leadership and national GOP figures
- ›Polling of Minnesota Republican primary voters showing head-to-head matchup preferences among declared candidates
- ›Fundraising totals and donor support relative to competing candidates through FEC disclosure periods
What moved the line
- Jun 18Mark York↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Michele Tafoya↑3pp90→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Michele Tafoya↓3pp93→90¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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