Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?

This market is pricing Mike Collins as an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination at 93¢, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields (18% for Yes vs. 1,843% for No) signals the market is heavily skewed toward the consensus outcome with minimal liquidity on the No side. The 2¢ cross-venue gap favoring Kalshi (93¢ vs. Polymarket's 91¢) is modest, though the 183% realized volatility and sharp 10-point rally over seven days (81¢ to 91¢) suggest recent positive news flow that may have compressed the No odds to unsustainably tight levels. With 200 days to expiry and only $22k open interest, this remains a thin market where meaningful new information could trigger significant repricing.

Resolution rules

If Mike Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Georgia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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