Will Milwaukee win at least 85 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will Milwaukee win at least 85 games this season?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. Milwaukee's 85-win threshold has experienced significant downward pressure, dropping 23 cents over seven days to 56¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment about the team's prospects despite still being 205 days from resolution.
Analysis
Milwaukee's 85-win threshold has experienced significant downward pressure, dropping 23 cents over seven days to 56¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment about the team's prospects despite still being 205 days from resolution. The market displays extreme volatility (322% realized, 2.42 vol ratio) with unusually high implied yields (170.9% Yes, 185.2% No) relative to the modest $11,453 open interest and thin $8 daily volume, indicating illiquidity and potential mispricing. The wide 9¢ spread and neutral regime with low information arrival (0.5/h) suggest this is a thinly-traded market where the recent price decline may reflect limited trading activity rather than fundamental conviction.
Resolution rules
If Milwaukee has 85+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-MIL-26-T85 yes 100