Mitchell Berman · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26
Mitchell Berman is priced at 51¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside KXWIPRIMARY-01D26.
Price history
51¢ current
−12¢Contract brief
If Mitchell Berman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WI-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mitchell Berman
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Mitchell Berman 76¢
Range
1¢-76¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-MBER
Jun 25, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$282
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 81¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Mitchell Berman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WI-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-MBER
Event family
KXWIPRIMARY-01D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Mitchell Berman 76¢
Current share
0%
Mitchell Berman
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-MBER
Peter Burgelis
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-PBUR
Enrique Casiano
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-ECAS
Gage Stills
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-GSTI
Lorenzo Santos
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-LSAN
Miguel Aranda
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-MARA
Randy Bryce
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-RBRY
Travis Beckius
kalshi · KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-TBEC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 51% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.