Will Amanda Bell be the Democratic nominee for WI-06
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$639
11 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Katrina DeVille be the Democratic nominee for WI-08
Will Katrina DeVille be the Democratic nominee for WI-08?: Katrina DeVille
KXWIPRIMARY-08D26-KDEV
Cluster 2
Will Kevin Hermening be the Republican nominee for WI-07
Will Kevin Hermening be the Republican nominee for WI-07?: Kevin Hermening
KXWIPRIMARY-07R26-KHER
Cluster 3
Will Ben Steinhoff be the Democratic nominee for WI-05
Will Ben Steinhoff be the Democratic nominee for WI-05?: Ben Steinhoff
KXWIPRIMARY-05D26-BSTE
Cluster 4
Will Emily Berge be the Democratic nominee for WI-03
Will Emily Berge be the Democratic nominee for WI-03?: Emily Berge
KXWIPRIMARY-03D26-EBER
Cluster 5
Will Gwen Moore be the Democratic nominee for WI-04
Will Gwen Moore be the Democratic nominee for WI-04?: Gwen Moore
KXWIPRIMARY-04D26-GMOO
Cluster 6
Will Brad Smith be the Democratic nominee for WI-06
Will Brad Smith be the Democratic nominee for WI-06?: Brad Smith
KXWIPRIMARY-06D26-BSMI
Cluster 7
Will Michael Alfonso be the Republican nominee for WI-07
Will Michael Alfonso be the Republican nominee for WI-07?: Michael Alfonso
KXWIPRIMARY-07R26-MALF
Cluster 8
Will Peter Burgelis be the Democratic nominee for WI-01
Will Peter Burgelis be the Democratic nominee for WI-01?: Peter Burgelis
KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-PBUR
Cluster 9
Will Jessi Ebben be the Republican nominee for WI-07
Will Jessi Ebben be the Republican nominee for WI-07?: Jessi Ebben
KXWIPRIMARY-07R26-JEBB
Cluster 10
Will Mitchell Berman be the Democratic nominee for WI-01
Will Mitchell Berman be the Democratic nominee for WI-01?: Mitchell Berman
KXWIPRIMARY-01D26-MBER
Cluster 11
Will Bryan Steil be the Republican nominee for WI-01
Will Bryan Steil be the Republican nominee for WI-01?: Bryan Steil
KXWIPRIMARY-01R26-BSTE
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Amanda Bell wins the Democratic primary election for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market views her as a competitive but not favored candidate among the potential Democratic nominees. Primary election outcomes depend heavily on candidate resources, name recognition, grassroots organization, and voter turnout patterns within the district. The probability could shift based on endorsements, campaign spending reports, polling data, or candidate entry/exit decisions. The Democratic primary election itself will definitively resolve this contract, with nomination determined at the state party convention or through a primary vote, depending on Wisconsin's 2026 nomination process. Between now and that date, candidates' fundraising announcements and organizational activities will likely trigger significant probability movements.
- ›Amanda Bell's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared or potential Democratic candidates in WI-06
- ›Endorsement patterns from local party officials, county organizations, or established state Democratic figures
- ›Public polling of Democratic primary voters in WI-06, if conducted, showing Bell's name recognition and support levels relative to competitors
- ›Candidate field composition—whether other strong candidates enter or withdraw from the Democratic primary
- ›Early voting or organizational indicators such as door-knocking campaigns, volunteer recruitment, or event turnout in the district
What moved the line
- Jun 22Kevin Hermening↓7pp14→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Gwen Moore↑5pp92→97¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Michael Alfonso↑5pp75→80¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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