Will Amanda Bell be the Democratic nominee for WI-06

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Amanda Bell wins the Democratic primary election for Wisconsin's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market views her as a competitive but not favored candidate among the potential Democratic nominees. Primary election outcomes depend heavily on candidate resources, name recognition, grassroots organization, and voter turnout patterns within the district. The probability could shift based on endorsements, campaign spending reports, polling data, or candidate entry/exit decisions. The Democratic primary election itself will definitively resolve this contract, with nomination determined at the state party convention or through a primary vote, depending on Wisconsin's 2026 nomination process. Between now and that date, candidates' fundraising announcements and organizational activities will likely trigger significant probability movements.

• ›Amanda Bell's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared or potential Democratic candidates in WI-06
• ›Endorsement patterns from local party officials, county organizations, or established state Democratic figures
• ›Public polling of Democratic primary voters in WI-06, if conducted, showing Bell's name recognition and support levels relative to competitors
• ›Candidate field composition—whether other strong candidates enter or withdraw from the Democratic primary
• ›Early voting or organizational indicators such as door-knocking campaigns, volunteer recruitment, or event turnout in the district

What moved the line

• Aug 3Rick Crosson↑12pp52→64¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 2Fred Clark↑11pp81→92¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Rick Crosson↑10pp62→72¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Katrina DeVille↑9pp6→15¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Brad Smith↓8pp80→72¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds