Nominal U.S. GDP growth above 1.5% in Q2 2026
Above 1.5% is priced at 73¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 78¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above.
Price history
73¢ current
+32¢Contract brief
If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 1.5%
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Above 1.5% 21¢
Range
3¢-21¢
Family volume
$300
Identifier
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C1.5
Jun 25, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
21¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
78¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$300
Orderbook snapshot
21 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
KXNGDPQ-26Q2-C1.5
Event family
Will nominal U.S. GDP growth be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$300
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 1.5% 21¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.