North Dakota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
North Dakota is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 14 inside KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4.
Price history
13¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the maximum drought monitor category in North Dakota during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
North Dakota
Rank
#10 of 14
Leader
Missouri 82¢
Range
2¢-82¢
Family volume
$527
Identifier
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-ND
Jun 28, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#10 of 14
14 outcomes · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$527
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the maximum drought monitor category in North Dakota during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-ND
Event family
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$527
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Missouri 82¢
Current share
0%
Missouri
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-MO
Virginia
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-VA
Oregon
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-OR
Kansas
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-KS
Tennessee
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-TN
Louisiana
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-LA
Washington
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-WA
Arizona
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-AZ
Minnesota
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-MN
North Dakota
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-ND
California
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-CA
Iowa
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IA
Illinois
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IL
Indiana
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.