Will Indiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$481
12 contracts
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 2
Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 3
Will Minnesota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Louisiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 6
Will California have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Tennessee have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Arizona have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 9
Will Iowa have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Will Iowa have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Iowa
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IA
Cluster 10
Will North Dakota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 11
Will Virginia have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Cluster 12
Will Washington have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Analysis
This contract resolves based on whether Indiana experiences a drought category of D4 (severe drought) or worse at any point between June 4 and July 30, 2026. The current 54% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about summer drought conditions in Indiana. Regional drought patterns heavily influence this outcome: the contrast between related contracts shows Oregon at 69% and Kansas at 82%, while Indiana sits in the middle, suggesting analysts view Indiana as moderately exposed but less likely than the Great Plains states. The primary drivers are seasonal precipitation patterns and soil moisture levels through mid-to-late summer. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly updates through late July will be critical for tracking actual drought category progression. Current atmospheric conditions in May will establish baseline moisture levels, while June-July rainfall will determine whether conditions deteriorate to D4 severity.
- ›Indiana's current drought classification as of early June 2026 and baseline soil moisture levels entering the summer period
- ›Total precipitation received during June and July 2026 relative to historical norms for the region
- ›Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor classifications released each Thursday, which will track progression toward D4 category
- ›Comparison to observable drought outcomes in neighboring states (Missouri, Illinois, Ohio) that share similar climate patterns
- ›Temperature extremes and evapotranspiration rates during June-July, which accelerate drought conditions when combined with below-normal precipitation
What moved the line
- Jun 25Arizona↓22pp38→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Virginia↑17pp49→66¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Virginia↓15pp66→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Oregon↑13pp50→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Louisiana↓13pp46→33¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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