Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026
Oregon is priced at 64¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 45¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 42¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 14 inside KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4.
Price history
64¢ current
+37¢Contract brief
If the maximum drought monitor category in Oregon during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Oregon
Rank
#2 of 14
Leader
Missouri 80¢
Range
2¢-80¢
Family volume
$9
Identifier
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-OR
Jun 26, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
45¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
42¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 14
14 outcomes · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$9
Orderbook snapshot
45 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the maximum drought monitor category in Oregon during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-OR
Event family
KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Missouri 80¢
Current share
0%
Missouri
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-MO
Oregon
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-OR
Virginia
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-VA
Louisiana
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-LA
Tennessee
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-TN
Washington
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-WA
Kansas
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-KS
Arizona
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-AZ
Iowa
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IA
Minnesota
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-MN
California
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-CA
North Dakota
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-ND
Illinois
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IL
Indiana
kalshi · KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4-IN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 64% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.