Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 2, 2027. Oklahoma State is priced at a severely depressed 5¢ with an extraordinary 3,361.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either extreme undervaluation or minimal market conviction given the thin $18.75 daily volume and modest $2,190.75 open interest.
Analysis
Oklahoma State is priced at a severely depressed 5¢ with an extraordinary 3,361.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either extreme undervaluation or minimal market conviction given the thin $18.75 daily volume and modest $2,190.75 open interest. The recent price movement from 3¢ to 4¢ over seven days indicates growing confidence, though the 1¢ spread and 261-day runway to the 1/2/2027 expiry provide ample opportunity for repricing if the team performs well during the 2026 season. The stark 3,356% yield differential between Yes and No positions reflects a market pricing in near-zero probability, which warrants scrutiny for potential mispricing given Oklahoma State's historical competitiveness in the Big 12.
Resolution rules
If Oklahoma St. wins the 2026 College Football Big 12 Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXNCAAFB12-26-OKST yes 100